Discover more about the topics and technologies to be discussed at this year's conference, via a series of exclusive interviews with a selection of our expert speakers.
Jacopo Tattini, transport and energy analyst at the International Energy Agency in France, discusses the status of electric mobility and explores its future development.
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Electric mobility continues to grow rapidly, supported by policies, by cost reductions achieved via technology developments and by the increased dynamism of market actors. The International Energy Agency’s Global EV Outlook 2019 (GEVO2019) analyzes the status of electric mobility and explores its future development. It projects the global EV stock in 2030 will reach more than 130 million under existing policies in the New Policies Scenario, and 250 million in the EV30@30 Scenario in which action is taken to further push deployment. GEVO2019 assesses the implications of such EV uptake for electricity demand, oil displacement and well-to-wheel GHG emissions. It also compares lifecycle GHG emissions across different powertrains and discusses the sustainability of the EV battery materials supply chain.
What is the current status of electric mobility?
Electric mobility continues to grow rapidly. In 2018, the global electric car fleet exceeded 5.1 million, up two million from the previous year. China remained the world’s largest electric car market, followed by Europe and the United States. Norway was the global leader in terms of electric car market share (46%). The global stock of electric two-wheelers was 260 million and there were 460,000 electric buses. In freight transport, electric vehicles (EVs) were mostly deployed as light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), which reached 250,000 units in 2018, while medium-duty electric truck sales were in the range of 1,000-2,000 in 2018. The global EV stock in 2018 was served by 5.2 million light-duty vehicle (LDV) chargers (540,000 of which are publicly accessible).
EVs on the road in 2018 consumed about 58 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity (largely attributable to two-wheelers in China) and emitted 41 million tons of carbon-dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-eq), while saving 36 Mt CO2-eq compared with an equivalent internal combustion engine (ICE) fleet.
Policies continue to have a major influence on the development of electric mobility. EV uptake typically starts with the establishment of a set of targets, followed by the adoption of vehicle and charging standards. An EV deployment plan often includes procurement programs to stimulate demand for electric vehicles and to enable an initial roll-out of publicly accessible charging infrastructure. Fiscal incentives, especially important as long as EV purchase prices are higher than for ICE vehicles, are often coupled with regulatory measures that boost the value proposition of EVs (e.g. waivers to access restrictions, lower toll or parking fees) or embedding incentives for vehicles with low tailpipe emissions (e.g. fuel economy standards) or setting zero-emissions mandates.
Technology developments are delivering substantial cost reductions. Advances in technology and cost cutting are expected to continue. Key enablers are developments in battery chemistry and expansion of production capacity in manufacturing plants.
Other technology developments expected to contribute to cost reductions include the possibility to redesign vehicle manufacturing platforms using simpler and more innovative design as well as the use of big data to customize battery size to travel needs and avoid oversizing the batteries.
The private sector is responding proactively to the policy signals and technology developments. An increasing number of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) have declared intentions to electrify the models they offer, not only for cars, but also for other modes of road transport. Investment in battery manufacturing is growing, notably in China and Europe. Utilities, charging point operators, charging hardware manufacturers and other stakeholders in the power sector are also increasing investment in the roll-out of charging infrastructure. This takes place in an environment that is increasingly showing signs of consolidation, with several acquisitions by utilities and major energy companies.
What does the future development of EVs look like?
Global EV Outlook 2019 explores the future development of electric mobility through two scenarios: the New Policies Scenario, which aims to illustrate the impact of announced policy ambitions; and the EV30@30 Scenario, which takes into account the pledges of the Electric Vehicle Initiative’s EV30@30 Campaign to reach a 30% market share for EVs in all modes except two-wheelers by 2030. In the New Policies Scenario in 2030, global EV sales reach 23 million and the stock exceeds 130 million vehicles (excluding two/three-wheelers). In the EV30@30 Scenario, EV sales and stock nearly double by 2030: sales reach 43 million and the stock numbers more than 250 million. China maintains its world lead with 57% share of the EV market in 2030, followed by Europe (26%).
With the projected size of the global EV market (in particular cars), the expansion of battery manufacturing capacity will largely be driven by electrification in the car market.
The projected EV stock in the New Policies Scenario would cut demand for oil products by 127 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) (about 2.5 million barrels per day [mb/d]) in 2030; with more EVs in the EV30@30 Scenario, the reduced oil demand is estimated at 4.3mb/d.
Absent adjustments to current taxation schemes, this could affect governments’ tax revenue base derived from vehicle and fuel taxes. Opportunities to balance potential reductions in revenue are described in the report.
In the New Policies Scenario, GHG emissions by the EV fleet reach roughly 230 million tons of carbon-dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-eq) in 2030, offsetting emissions of about 220Mt CO2-eq that would have resulted from a fleet of ICE vehicles of equivalent size. In the EV30@30 Scenario, the assumed trajectory for power generation decarbonization is consistent with the IEA Sustainable Development Scenario and further strengthens GHG emissions reductions from EVs compared with ICE vehicles.
What does GEVO2019 tell us about power needs in the future?
Electricity demand from EVs in the New Policies Scenario is projected to reach almost 640TWh in 2030 (1,110TWh in the EV30@30 Scenario), with LDVs as the largest electricity consumer among all EVs. Since EVs are expected to become more relevant for power systems, it is important to ensure that their uptake does not impede effective power system management.
Slow chargers, which can provide flexibility services to power systems, are estimated to account for more than 60% of the total electricity consumed globally to charge EVs in both scenarios in 2030. Since buses account for the largest share of fast-charging demand, concentrating these consumption patterns to low demand periods such as at night can constructively impact the load profile in a power system.
By providing flexibility services, electric mobility can increase opportunities for integration of variable renewable energy resources into the generation mix, as well as reducing cost associated with the adaptation of power systems to increased EV uptake.
Is the EV battery materials supply chain sustainable? Can it be improved?
The EV uptake and related battery production requirements imply bigger demand for new materials in the automotive sector, requiring increased attention to raw materials supply. Traceability and transparency of raw material supply chains are key instruments to help address the criticalities associated with raw material supply by fostering sustainable sourcing of minerals. The development of binding regulatory frameworks is important to ensure that international multi-stakeholder cooperation can effectively address these challenges. The battery end-of-life management – including second-life applications of automotive batteries, standards for battery waste management and environmental requirements on battery design – is also crucial to reduce the volumes of critical raw materials needed for batteries and to limit risks of shortages.
Don’t miss Jacopo Tattini, transport and energy analyst at the International Energy Agency in France, who will be giving a presentation titled The International Energy Agency’s Global EV Outlook 2019 on December 10 at 10:20hrs as part of Stream 5: Energy - Powering the Future of Transport.
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